Episode 75 · 2021-04-28 · 51:08 · Original in Finnish
Threats and Opportunities in the Rental Market | Ville Valkonen | Negotiator 75
Originally published as “Vuokramarkkinoiden uhat ja mahdollisuudet | Ville Valkonen | Neuvottelija 75”
Ville Valkonen, who heads advocacy at the Finnish Landlord Association, sets out why the rental market is local through and through — central Helsinki and a Vantaa suburb are in practice different markets — and why the largest centres have pulled away from mid-sized cities such as Jyväskylä, Lahti and Hämeenlinna. The episode's central tension runs between debt and regulation: Valkonen defends the housing company loan and leverage as necessary tools while demanding that buyers be given far better information about how many layers of debt hide inside a flat's price, from the ground lease to construction-stage financing. He is sharply critical of political risk, calculating that tightening the deductibility of the financing charge would bring the state at most 20 or 30 million in the short term and nothing in the long term, while the Mörttinen working group's proposed 450 per cent debt cap would treat a newly graduated couple exactly as it treats a couple in their sixties. The conversation also runs through the limits of Airbnb activity, the rigidity of zoning and empty commercial premises, and why an eight per cent yield in Loimaa is in practice compensation for lettability risk and falling values. Valkonen closes on three pressures on construction: migration, the repair debt of the 1970s suburbs, and ageing, which shrinks household size and brings Helsinki the equivalent of two minibuses of new residents every day.
Watch and listen
Key moments
- 00:00 — The controllability of property investing, and the episode's themes
- 01:38 — Guest: Ville Valkonen of the Finnish Landlord Association
- 02:07 — Turku, Tampere and the pull of the universities
- 03:14 — The capital region first, Tampere and Turku behind
- 04:02 — Marine industry and Valmet lift Turku
- 04:57 — Finland is not urbanising but big-city-ising
- 06:00 — Covid as a breather in urbanisation
- 06:46 — The housing company is a Finnish peculiarity
- 07:38 — Depreciation on a whole property, and taxation
- 08:02 — Deductibility of the financing charge against rental income
- 08:48 — What recognising it as income means in the accounts
- 09:35 — The housing company loan as a renovation instrument
- 10:14 — New-build projects and what financing instruments mean for construction
- 11:06 — The housing market is local down to the block
- 12:17 — Four levels of debt behind the same flat
- 13:45 — The buyer should see the future cash flows
- 14:36 — Ground-lease risk and Valkonen's own rule
- 15:28 — Leverage is all but compulsory in property investing
- 17:59 — Subsidies, taxes and political risk
- 19:00 — The grounds for the tax tightening are thin
- 19:42 — No research has shown a macroprudential risk
- 20:11 — The Mörttinen working group and the 450 per cent debt cap
- 21:41 — Banks have the best data for assessing repayment capacity
- 22:34 — Airbnb and the hallmarks of accommodation business
- 23:35 — The zoned use, and where building control draws the line
- 24:12 — The sharing economy and housing as a service
- 25:07 — Rigid zoning and the problem with hybrid space
- 26:27 — Regulation runs through the whole property value chain
- 27:47 — The Landlord Association's mission and member services
- 29:04 — Valkonen's background and a portfolio of four flats
- 32:22 — Alone, with a partner, or by buying services
- 33:29 — You can influence a flat, unlike a share
- 34:52 — The easy renovation gains have got harder
- 36:30 — The housing market is not perfect like the equity market
- 38:36 — Why yields differ between Helsinki and Loimaa
- 40:12 — Lettability risk and falling values in remote areas
- 41:26 — The core of the portfolio and the yield-weighted holdings
- 42:07 — Remote study and demand for one-room flats
- 43:11 — Demand for larger flats is growing
- 45:39 — Housing as a safe asset class, and the recession
- 47:02 — Empty commercial space should be converted into homes
- 48:34 — Suburban repair debt and ageing as a megatrend
- 50:00 — Helsinki is not meeting its construction targets
Summary
Ville Valkonen, who heads advocacy at the Finnish Landlord Association, sets out why the rental market is local through and through — central Helsinki and a Vantaa suburb are in practice different markets — and why the largest centres have pulled away from mid-sized cities such as Jyväskylä, Lahti and Hämeenlinna. The episode’s central tension runs between debt and regulation: Valkonen defends the housing company loan and leverage as necessary tools while demanding that buyers be given far better information about how many layers of debt hide inside a flat’s price, from the ground lease to construction-stage financing. He is sharply critical of political risk, calculating that tightening the deductibility of the financing charge would bring the state at most 20 or 30 million in the short term and nothing in the long term, while the Mörttinen working group’s proposed 450 per cent debt cap would treat a newly graduated couple exactly as it treats a couple in their sixties. The conversation also runs through the limits of Airbnb activity, the rigidity of zoning and empty commercial premises, and why an eight per cent yield in Loimaa is in practice compensation for lettability risk and falling values. Valkonen closes on three pressures on construction: migration, the repair debt of the 1970s suburbs, and ageing, which shrinks household size and brings Helsinki the equivalent of two minibuses of new residents every day.
Chapters
- 00:00 — The controllability of property investing, and the episode’s themes
- 01:38 — Guest: Ville Valkonen of the Finnish Landlord Association
- 02:07 — Turku, Tampere and the pull of the universities
- 03:14 — The capital region first, Tampere and Turku behind
- 04:02 — Marine industry and Valmet lift Turku
- 04:57 — Finland is not urbanising but big-city-ising
- 06:00 — Covid as a breather in urbanisation
- 06:46 — The housing company is a Finnish peculiarity
- 07:38 — Depreciation on a whole property, and taxation
- 08:02 — Deductibility of the financing charge against rental income
- 08:48 — What recognising it as income means in the accounts
- 09:35 — The housing company loan as a renovation instrument
- 10:14 — New-build projects and what financing instruments mean for construction
- 11:06 — The housing market is local down to the block
- 12:17 — Four levels of debt behind the same flat
- 13:45 — The buyer should see the future cash flows
- 14:36 — Ground-lease risk and Valkonen’s own rule
- 15:28 — Leverage is all but compulsory in property investing
- 17:59 — Subsidies, taxes and political risk
- 19:00 — The grounds for the tax tightening are thin
- 19:42 — No research has shown a macroprudential risk
- 20:11 — The Mörttinen working group and the 450 per cent debt cap
- 21:41 — Banks have the best data for assessing repayment capacity
- 22:34 — Airbnb and the hallmarks of accommodation business
- 23:35 — The zoned use, and where building control draws the line
- 24:12 — The sharing economy and housing as a service
- 25:07 — Rigid zoning and the problem with hybrid space
- 26:27 — Regulation runs through the whole property value chain
- 27:47 — The Landlord Association’s mission and member services
- 29:04 — Valkonen’s background and a portfolio of four flats
- 32:22 — Alone, with a partner, or by buying services
- 33:29 — You can influence a flat, unlike a share
- 34:52 — The easy renovation gains have got harder
- 36:30 — The housing market is not perfect like the equity market
- 38:36 — Why yields differ between Helsinki and Loimaa
- 40:12 — Lettability risk and falling values in remote areas
- 41:26 — The core of the portfolio and the yield-weighted holdings
- 42:07 — Remote study and demand for one-room flats
- 43:11 — Demand for larger flats is growing
- 45:39 — Housing as a safe asset class, and the recession
- 47:02 — Empty commercial space should be converted into homes
- 48:34 — Suburban repair debt and ageing as a megatrend
- 50:00 — Helsinki is not meeting its construction targets
Watch
The recording lives on the Neuvottelija channel: Vuokramarkkinoiden uhat ja mahdollisuudet | Ville Valkonen | Neuvottelija 75. A Finnish edition of this episode is published at www.neuvottelija.fi.
People and topics
Guests: Ville Valkonen