---
title: "France's Debt Crisis and the Future of the Euro — Sami Miettinen on Puheenaihe"
titleOriginal: "Ranskan talouskriisi, velkaantuminen ja euromaiden tulevaisuus (Sami Miettinen) | Puheenaihe 719"
description: "Sami Miettinen as a guest on Puheenaihe, hosted by Rami Kurimo, on French public debt ahead of the 2027 presidential election: why a left-wing choice now costs far more than it used to, why tax rises fail when AI can replace taxed labour, why the bill will most likely end up on the ECB's balance sheet, and why Finland should negotiate its capital-key share of any purchase programme in advance."
format: "podcast"
show: "Puheenaihe"
episode: "719"
hosts: ["Rami Kurimo"]
date: 2026-10-31
duration: "1:44:57"
language: "fi"
original: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UQFMlKCro7M
canonical: https://www.neuvottelija.com/media/puheenaihe-719-france-debt-crisis-and-the-euro/
---

# France's Debt Crisis and the Future of the Euro — Sami Miettinen on Puheenaihe

Sami Miettinen joined **Puheenaihe** host Rami Kurimo for an hour and three quarters on
France: Europe's most indebted economy, €3,600bn of public debt at 119% of GDP, a 5%
deficit, zero growth and a presidential election in spring 2027 that offers a choice
between Le Pen and the far left.

The structural argument comes first. A left-wing spending government used to cost a
country a little, because investors had nowhere else to put their money but government
bonds, property and equities. Now they can lend to Google, Anthropic or SpaceX instead,
which Sami considers less risky than France, so the switching point has become steep.
AI sharpens it: when a €5,000 salary costs an employer €9,000 a month and AI inference
can only be taxed through VAT, raising taxes on human labour accelerates its
replacement, and the tax base shrinks whatever the government does.

His most likely scenario — a forecast, labelled as one — is that Le Pen wins, a
Meloni-style stabilisation buys perhaps a year, and there is no Greek-style write-down;
instead the ECB buys French debt onto its balance sheet and the euro is inflated into
softer money. He calls that the most humane of four unpleasant options, the others being
restructuring, parallel currencies and a federal Europe. A long passage revisits the Greek
rescue from Finland's side — the EFSF and ESM, Finland's roughly €12.6bn of guarantees,
the order in which creditors were repaid — and credits Greece for the reforms it carried
out afterwards.

The conclusion is a negotiator's: Finland should hold its position, set up a team before
the crisis, and insist on at least its capital-key share (about 2%) of any ECB purchase
programme — about €20bn of its roughly €260bn debt in a €1,000bn programme.

## Chapters

- **0:00** — "The left-wing choice"
- **4:09** — The consequences of borrowing
- **8:22** — Printing money
- **10:56** — Inflation and the policy rate
- **14:17** — The French economy
- **16:57** — French debt and deficit
- **21:09** — Raising taxes
- **25:59** — The size of the public sector
- **36:09** — Voters
- **45:43** — Raising the retirement age
- **48:34** — France's options
- **54:26** — The impact on Finland
- **57:08** — What the ECB does
- **59:52** — Buying bonds
- **1:07:37** — The Greek rescue
- **1:17:48** — "3,600 billion"
- **1:21:06** — The euro
- **1:27:00** — The future
- **1:35:15** — Market reaction
- **1:39:07** — How Finland should prepare

**The recording lives on Puheenaihe's own channel and they own it.** This page is a record
of the appearance and a pointer to the original, not a copy of it. Timestamps follow the
chapter marks Puheenaihe published with the episode; the episode was recorded on
30 October 2026 and published on 31 October 2026.

Sami has discussed the euro's design on Puheenaihe before, with Juhana Vartiainen on
[the ECU-2 basket as an alternative to the euro](https://www.neuvottelija.com/ai/puheenaihe-131-ecu-2-kori-juhana-vartiainen/),
and on [inflation and fiscal dominance](https://www.neuvottelija.com/ai/puheenaihe-198-inflaatio-ja-fiskaalidominanssi/).

Original recording (Puheenaihe): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UQFMlKCro7M

---

Cite as: Sami Miettinen, guest on Puheenaihe 719 — France's Debt Crisis and the Future of the Euro — Sami Miettinen on Puheenaihe, 2026-10-31, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UQFMlKCro7M. Record: https://www.neuvottelija.com/media/puheenaihe-719-france-debt-crisis-and-the-euro/.