{"title": "The Finnish Economy in Trouble Again | Stefan Törnqvist | Negotiator 116", "titleOriginal": "Suomen talous taas ongelmissa | Stefan Törnqvist | Neuvottelija 116", "episodeNumber": "116", "guest": "Stefan Törnqvist", "publishedAt": "2022-01-09", "duration": "28:58", "durationIso": "PT28M58S", "youtube": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_UlU9yaWgKM", "fiCanonical": "https://www.neuvottelija.fi/fi/episodes/146-suomen-talous-taas-ongelmissa-stefan-tornqvist-neuvottelija", "originalLanguage": "fi", "format": "full", "topics": ["finnish_economy_policy", "investing_markets"], "description": "Stefan Törnqvist returns to the channel and holds to the most provocative claim of his previous appearance: everyone benefits from the euro except the Finnish national economy, while for the trade unions it has become, from what he hears, a fight for survival. The sharpest observation is about timing — because pay in Finland can only go up, large increases could never really be granted in a boom either, and asked by the host whether the mood resembles 2007, he sees the same signs and warns of another 12 years without growth. As a county election candidate he names the end of municipal boundaries as the reform's best feature. On monetary policy he agrees with the host's forecast that the Fed will tighten and the European Central Bank cannot, because a market rate cannot be imposed on Italian debt without a banking crisis that Basel regulation has built into the balance sheets; his most likely endgame is a world record in inflation, unless a war changes the calculation.", "chapters": [{"t": "00:00", "title": "Guest Stefan Törnqvist", "seconds": 0}, {"t": "02:01", "title": "Esko Aho, 1991 and the missing culture of agreement", "seconds": 121}, {"t": "03:27", "title": "The social and health reform and public sector growth", "seconds": 207}, {"t": "05:38", "title": "Why the National Coalition rather than RKP or the Finns Party", "seconds": 338}, {"t": "07:41", "title": "The euro does not suit any euro area state", "seconds": 461}, {"t": "09:22", "title": "In the United States tightening is a political question", "seconds": 562}, {"t": "11:12", "title": "The best feature: municipal boundaries disappear", "seconds": 672}, {"t": "12:54", "title": "What municipalities want to transfer to the county", "seconds": 774}, {"t": "14:26", "title": "Choosing care by where you work", "seconds": 866}, {"t": "15:50", "title": "The endgame of monetary policy", "seconds": 950}, {"t": "17:19", "title": "Basel regulation forces banks into government bonds", "seconds": 1039}, {"t": "18:59", "title": "The most likely outcome: a world record in inflation", "seconds": 1139}, {"t": "20:21", "title": "The Gosbank scenario and central bank money", "seconds": 1221}, {"t": "22:38", "title": "Digital currency and the redundancy of the banking sector", "seconds": 1358}, {"t": "24:04", "title": "Could the development be slowed", "seconds": 1444}, {"t": "25:20", "title": "The Basel Committee as master of the universe", "seconds": 1520}, {"t": "26:47", "title": "The short and the long run in history", "seconds": 1607}, {"t": "28:02", "title": "Closing words", "seconds": 1682}], "sourceTranscriptType": "macwhisper_srt", "subtitleMethod": "none", "provenance": "Owner page assembled from YouTube metadata, the neuvottelija.fi episode record and a MacWhisper transcription of the Finnish audio, upgraded on 18 October 2026. The chapter marks are the publisher's own, translated one for one, and every mark was verified against the start of a transcript cue. No transcript is published here: the channel has no English caption track for this episode. The claims about the euro, the European Central Bank's room for manoeuvre and Italian sovereign debt are the guest's own and are contested; no economist holding the opposing view is present, and the guest was a candidate in the county elections at the time. Recorded in January 2022, before the inflation, rate moves and war of that year, and the forecasts in it should be read against what followed.", "coreTheses": ["Wages that cannot fall cannot safely rise much either, which turns a distributional argument into a timing one.", "The 2007–2008 comparison is specific: a boom in which large settlements are granted is the condition that makes the following downturn unmanageable.", "The ECB's constraint is not inflation but Italian debt, and Basel put that debt on bank balance sheets by design — which is why Törnqvist calls the Basel Committee the real master of the universe.", "The claim that everyone gains from the euro except Finland is stated as a conclusion about one economy's structure, not as a general case against monetary union."], "slug": "ep116-suomen-talous-taas-ongelmissa-stefan-tornqvist", "guestsCanonical": ["Stefan Törnqvist"], "guestPages": ["https://www.neuvottelija.com/podcast/guests/stefan-tornqvist/"], "page": "https://www.neuvottelija.com/podcast/episodes/ep116-suomen-talous-taas-ongelmissa-stefan-tornqvist/", "markdown": "https://www.neuvottelija.com/podcast/episodes/ep116-suomen-talous-taas-ongelmissa-stefan-tornqvist/index.md", "captions": null, "transcript": null, "videoId": "_UlU9yaWgKM", "dbId": null, "qaCoveragePct": 0.0, "qaSemanticVerdict": "transcript_timecoded", "aiArticleEn": "https://www.neuvottelija.com/ai/ep116-suomen-talous-taas-ongelmissa-stefan-tornqvist/", "aiArticleFi": "https://www.neuvottelija.fi/economy/ep116-suomen-talous-taas-ongelmissa-stefan-tornqvist/"}